What are your chances of encountering someone with the coronavirus in the US or Europe? From a restaurant patio in LA to a busy bar or birthday party in New York? Well a new US Europe Covid risk tool helps provide the answer.
On its main map, the interactive tool shows you the relative real-time risk of attending gatherings across the United States. This by first picking the event size and location.
Main Map: USA Risk Assessment Tool
The COVID-19 Risk Assessment Planning Tool is the work of biologist Professor Joshua Weitz, at the Georgia Institute of Technology in Atlanta. It calculates risk using Covid case data from all over the US. The results he says show the chances of meeting at least one Covid-19 positive person on a scale of 0-100%.
Note, it can only predict the likelihood of someone carrying in the virus with them to a restaurant or event in a given location. Not whether a gathering is too risky to attend. That’s a personal choice … At least it is for those unlike me, not in Paris lockdown, and able to go to restaurants or gatherings.
Another researcher who helped to build the tool, Clio Andris, describes it as being “like a weather map”. “It can tell you what the risk is that it will rain, but it can’t tell you if you’ll get wet,” she says. “That depends on if you carry an umbrella, or if you choose not to go outside at all.”
The tool is free, handy, and easy to use before heading out on the town. Or out of town for that matter, as it’s also a useful holiday planning tool. Particularly with plans for a global rollout. Clearly it can help people understand the risks of holiday gatherings and make wise choices. (The tool by the way is peer-reviewed in Nature).
Europe Risks: UK, France, Spain
Indeed, the UK, France, Spain, Austria and the Czech Republic have already been mapped. And there will no doubt soon be some map creep Europe-wide.
The dashboard is brought up-to-date every day, so expect to see risks change across counties. Likewise on the “Global Risk Elements” map.
One thing to point out: the results assume actual number of coronavirus infections in most locations is ten times higher than official reports. Why? Because actual testing capacity does not detect all cases researchers say. Thus “In places with more testing availability, that rate may be lower.”
So what are the risks right now in the US? From a bar in Denver to a 100-person wedding in Baltimore – or Thanksgiving dinner with 25 guests in Los Angeles asks the LA Times. “You’d have a 78% chance of encountering someone with an active coronavirus infection at the Denver bar, a 68% chance at the wedding in Baltimore, and a roughly 25% chance at the L.A. Thanksgiving meal.”
US Europe Covid Risk Increasing
Sadly, you can probably expect to see the risks increase rather universally. There are very few parts of the map in Europe that aren’t high-risk red. And the US map is getting increasingly blotchy, with ruby red as cases surge by nearly 60% in a fortnight.
It’s not even sure that restaurants will remain open in New York. For now they are definitely closed in Paris, and much of Western Europe is in lockdown again. Particularly hotspots: France, Germany, Poland, Belgium, Italy, the UK and Spain.
Excellent article!
Interestingly enough, a Biden advisor today stated that a 4-6 week lockdown in the US could bring down the numbers. He stated that the government could fund lost wages and lost income for businesses.
I’m in favor of that if it gets the virus under control. There hasn’t been any meaningful national program in place yet.
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/11/11/biden-covid-advisor-says-us-lockdown-of-4-to-6-weeks-could-control-pandemic-and-revive-economy.html
I will do whatever makes sense to limit the damage of the virus.
Thanks for sharing. Wow if the Biden administration did that, it would represent a huge turnaround. Here’s to it – if it has such a positive effect Mark! Cheers and thanks for such generous feedback! Tamara