Will Biden Undo Trump’s Europe Travel Ban: Analysis

What is the future of the Trump travel ban on Europeans under President-elect Joe Biden? That is the question on many travelers’ minds. And it’s definitely been lingering on my mind over past days. (READ THE UPDATE HERE: As Biden intends to maintain the travel ban).

According to Fox News, Biden plans to roll back executive orders on a number of Trump issues, as soon as he’s in the White House. These include rejoining the Paris Climate Agreement and repealing Trump’s travel ban targeting majority Muslim nations.

Biden vs Trump: Travel Ban On Schengen Arrivals

But what about Trump’s travel ban on Europeans? In place since mid-March, it applies to anyone who’s been in one of the 26 Schengen zone countries in the past 14 days.

Despite Trump’s promises in May of moving to dilute the ban on low-risk Europeans, it remains. And it did so through many months of the EU being well on top of the virus, with infection levels way lower than the US. That is no longer the case, as a second wave – or for many, a continuation of the first – hits Europe hard.

But the US is also on the up again. And Trump clearly reneged on his pledge to open up the US over summer to European countries “where they are making progress” with the virus. For many of them did make serious progress. (And now yes, some are seriously backsliding).

Will Biden Lift Trump’s Europe Travel Ban?

The tables are constantly turning on Covid infection rates worldwide. And probably will continue to do so until that vaccine arrives.

Like the US, the situation in Europe varies wildly between one member state and another. But there is an EU average, and that helped determine to just who Europe opened its borders in July.

There was no prejudice involved in the decision. Or in the words of Biden back in March, no “travel restrictions based on favoritism and politics”.

The EU uses an average 14-day case rate per 100,000 people to allow travelers from certain countries in – or not. The initial 15 countries on the “safe country list” had infection rates on a par with or better than the EU. Now, amid the spiraling second wave, the list has shrunk to 8 countries.

Covid: Some EU Countries Better Than US

Yet according to data from John Hopkins University, the overall curve in the US is again worse than in Europe. The university’s Coronavirus Resource Centre says the US tops the worst hit countries in the world as of November 9.

Among the top ten, there are only five of 27 EU members: France, Italy, Germany, Poland and Spain. Plus the UK is in there too. No surprise then that all those Europeans are currently back in strict lockdowns.

Back to the data, it shows that in France the 7-day-average for new confirmed cases is on a downward trend. More surprising, given France hit record levels of some 60,000 new infections in a day last week. But perhaps the lockdown is starting to have some success.

US Vs. Europe 14 Day Infection Trends

Meanwhile, the latest European data shows the 14-day new case rate for the EU and UK was on average a whopping 496 per 100,000 people. That is up from 16 – yes you heard me right – in July, when borders first reopened to some foreign visitors. “The rate has been increasing for 105 days,” says the European Centre for Disease Prevention & Control.

EU border restrictions link closely to this data. Countries performing better than the EU get the green light to travel. Or at least that’s been the system up until now.

In the US, that figure is similar: 426 cases per 100,000 as a 14-day average. Remembering cases soared by 2 million since mid-October. So the picture there too is far from rosy.

That still leaves many European countries where infection levels are relatively low. Particularly the Nordics: Finland, Norway, Iceland, Estonia. So if travel bans are based on relative risk levels, the doors of the US should already be open to several EU nations. And they should have been for many months over summer, if promises had been met.

Now of course, the situation is changing rapidly yet again. But that should not prevent Biden from acting fast on lifting the ban says Michael Smith, London-based luxury travel consultant and travel advisor with Virtuoso.

“I expect Biden will immediately implement a policy to open the borders, and protect Americans from visitors with coronavirus. Pre-flight Covid PCR tests and at-airport testing can help alleviate fears of visitors bringing the virus into the United States.”

US Can Lift Ban On Some Europeans: Europe Must Do So On All Americans

There’s one big difference between the US travel ban on Europe, and the EU travel ban on the world.

The US can lift, as Trump suggested, the ban on European nations of low to moderate risk. And start by letting them back in first. But Europe can’t give preferential treatment to certain US states.

It can only decide to add the US as a whole to the EU’s safe country list. Then recommend to members that they lift the travel restrictions on Americans. Something each member may then implement or not.

Reciprocality definitely comes into play, as well as epidemiology. So lifting of the bans would have to be reciprocal. And there will be negotiations among US and European officials. But as we can see, neither continent is really in good enough shape to start lifting restrictions across the board. Though ahead of a vaccine, testing and tracing rules could go a long way in addressing this.

For Biden, Travel Bans Must Be Based Firmly On Risk – And Science – Not Politics

So getting back to Biden and his likely stance. He’s already more than hinted at what his thoughts are on the Schengen travel ban. Back in March he spoke out against travel bans applied willy-nilly.

Clearly now, as he announces a coronavirus task force, he’ll be taking advice from those public health experts on travel restrictions for certain countries. Reason will prevail over random measures – as part of a “national response” he favors.

“Banning all travel from Europe or any other part of the world may slow it but, as we’ve seen, it will not stop it. And travel restrictions based on favoritism and politics rather than risk will be counterproductive.” – Joe Biden March 2020

When The Time Is Right

Before there’s any chance of the US reopening to Europe, the situation both at home and in the EU will have to improve. Just today, the President-elect called on all Americans to wear face masks in a bid to turn the situation around.

“If Biden can make an immediate impact on day one of his Presidency that will send a tangible message to the electorate that he will get things done,” Michael Smith believes. “Legislative action to financially support the US travel and aviation industries will take a little longer to enact but should happen quickly.”

For now, both he and I are lock-downed, and can’t travel in any case. But as soon as the French lockdown ends, and Biden lifts the Trump travel ban – in due course – I’ll be on my way to see family in the US.

Before a vaccine arrives, I hope safe travel measures, mask rules and more testing help make this possible. One must be optimistic after all. As well as cautious. #Staysafe all!